The leaked version of the NHS England plan predicted that the overall full-time equivalent staff shortage in the health service would reach 571,000 by 2036-7, if current trends continued, a story published in The Guardian claimed.
The workforce plan reportedly estimated that in 15 years the NHS in England would have 44,000 fewer community nurses, 28,000 fewer GPs and an even greater lack of paramedics.
The plan would include “independently verified forecasts for the number of doctors, nurses and other professionals that will be needed in five, 10 and 15 years’ time”, according to the budget document.
He told parliament at the time that workforce shortages were one of the “biggest issues” affecting the health sector.
Nursing and other health leaders were disappointed when no details of the upcoming NHS workforce plan were included in the spring budget when it was announced on 15 March.
“The NHS will soon publish a long-term workforce plan to support and grow the workforce" - Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson
The Guardian said the leaked document also showed the current workforce crisis to be greater than official numbers reveal.
It suggested that the NHS was currently operating with a shortage of 154,000 full-time equivalent staff, and not 124,000 as the official figures state.
In response to the spring budget, chief executive of NHS Providers, Sir Julian Hartley, called for “no more delays” in publishing the plan.
At the time, Mr Hunt said that the government would publish the long-term workforce plan “shortly”, however he gave no further details about when that may be.
The Guardian reported that the leaked NHS England workforce plan was currently with ministers.
Other details of the leaked plan included a prediction that if current workforce trends continued, by 2036 the NHS would be unable to cope with the increased demand for care that would result from the aging population.
To prevent this, the plan called for investment in training to boost the workforce, saying that the overall number of all NHS staff trained per year should increase by 55% from 66,032 to 102,484.
The number of nurses trained per year should go up by 77% from 29,865 to 52,722 and the number of medical school places in the UK should be doubled from 7,500 to 15,000, The Guardian reported.
In addition, the number of trainee GPs in England should be increased from 4,000 to 6,000.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced in November 2022 that a comprehensive NHS workforce plan would be published in 2023.
There should be a 40% increase in the number of dentists and a 20% increase in the number of physiotherapists and other allied health professionals, according to details of the leaked plan published by The Guardian.
The plan also allegedly included warnings against continued reliance on agency and bank staff and international recruitment to ensure sufficient staffing levels.
England director for the Royal College of Nursing, Patricia Marquis, told Nursing Times: “Any workforce plan, when it is published, must contain a fully funded strategy for ending the crisis in nursing.
“This must include plans to end the over-reliance of overseas staff to close the gap in the domestic workforce.
“Health and care services are facing unsustainable pressures and patient care is at risk, yet there has been a long-term failure to provide the investment grow the nursing workforce.”
She urged ministers to publish the plan without further delay in order to “give nursing and patients the assurances they need”.
In response to the details of the leaked workforce plan, a government spokesperson said it was “growing the health care workforce” including by recruiting “50,000 more nurses”.
“The NHS will soon publish a long-term workforce plan to support and grow the workforce,” they added.
